A complete guide to the futures market fundamental analysis, technical analysis, trading, spreads and options spreads and trading principles
| Otros Autores: | , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Libro electrónico |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Hoboken, New Jersey :
Wiley
2017.
|
| Edición: | Second edition |
| Colección: | Wiley trading series.
|
| Materias: | |
| Ver en Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull: | https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009849115506719 |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Intro
- Series
- Title Page
- Copyright
- Dedication
- About the Authors
- Part I: Preliminaries
- Chapter 1: For Beginners Only
- Purpose of This Chapter
- The Nature of Futures Markets
- Delivery
- Contract Specifications
- Volume and Open Interest
- Hedging
- Trading
- Types of Orders
- Commissions and Margins
- Tax Considerations
- Notes
- Chapter 2: The Great Fundamental versus Technical Analysis Debate
- Notes
- Part II: Chart Analysis and Technical Indicators
- Chapter 3: Charts: Forecasting Tool or Folklore?
- Notes
- Chapter 4: Types of Charts
- Bar Charts
- Linked Contract Series: Nearest Futures versus Continuous Futures
- Close-Only ("Line") Charts
- Point-and-Figure Charts
- Candlestick Charts
- Chapter 5: Linking Contracts for Long-Term Chart Analysis: Nearest versus Continuous Futures
- The Necessity of Linked-Contract Charts
- Methods of Creating Linked-Contract Charts
- Nearest versus Continuous Futures in Chart Analysis
- Conclusion
- Notes
- Chapter 6: Trends
- Defining Trends by Highs and Lows
- TD Lines
- Internal Trend Lines
- Moving Averages
- Notes
- Chapter 7: Trading Ranges
- Trading Ranges: Trading Considerations
- Trading Range Breakouts
- Chapter 8: Support and Resistance
- Nearest Futures or Continuous Futures?
- Trading Ranges
- Prior Major Highs and Lows
- Concentrations of Relative Highs and Relative Lows
- Trend Lines, Channels, and Internal Trend Lines
- Price Envelope Bands
- Chapter 9: Chart Patterns
- One-Day Patterns
- Continuation Patterns
- Top and Bottom Formations
- Notes
- Chapter 10: Is Chart Analysis Still Valid?
- Chapter 11: Technical Indicators
- What Is an Indicator?
- The Basic Indicator Calculations
- Comparing Indicators
- Moving Average Types
- Oscillators and Trading Signals
- Indicator Myths
- Indicator "Types"
- Conclusion.
- Notes
- Part III: Applying Chart Analysis to Trading
- Chapter 12: Midtrend Entry and Pyramiding
- Chapter 13: Choosing Stop-Loss Points
- Note
- Chapter 14: Setting Objectives and Other Position Exit Criteria
- Chart-Based Objectives
- Measured Move
- Rule of Seven
- Support and Resistance Levels
- Overbought/Oversold Indicators
- DeMark Sequential
- Contrary Opinion
- Trailing Stops
- Change of Market Opinion
- Note
- Chapter 15: The Most Important Rule in Chart Analysis
- Failed Signals
- Bull and Bear Traps
- False Trend Line Breakouts
- Return to Spike Extremes
- Return to Wide-Ranging Day Extremes
- Counter-to-Anticipated Breakout of Flag or Pennant
- Opposite Direction Breakout of Flag or Pennant Following a Normal Breakout
- Penetration of Top and Bottom Formations
- Breaking of Curvature
- The Future Reliability of Failed Signals
- Conclusion
- Part IV: Trading Systems and Performance Measurement
- Chapter 16: Technical Trading Systems: Structure and Design:
- The Benefits of a Mechanical Trading System
- Three Basic Types of Systems
- Trend-Following Systems
- Ten Common Problems with Standard Trend-Following Systems
- Possible Modifications for Basic Trend-Following Systems
- Countertrend Systems
- Diversification
- Ten Common Problems with Trend-Following Systems Revisited
- Notes
- Chapter 17: Examples of Original Trading Systems
- Wide-Ranging-Day System
- Run-Day Breakout System
- Run-Day Consecutive Count System
- Conclusion
- Notes
- Chapter 18: Selecting the Best Futures Price Series for System Testing
- Actual Contract Series
- Nearest Futures
- Constant-Forward ("Perpetual") Series
- Continuous (Spread-Adjusted) Price Series
- Comparing the Series
- Conclusion
- Notes
- Chapter 19: Testing and Optimizing Trading Systems
- The Well-Chosen Example.
- Basic Concepts and Definitions
- Choosing the Price Series
- Choosing the Time Period
- Realistic Assumptions
- Optimizing Systems
- The Optimization Myth
- Testing versus Fitting
- The Truth about Simulated Results
- Multimarket System Testing
- Negative Results
- Ten Steps in Constructing and Testing a Trading System
- Observations about Trading Systems
- Notes
- Chapter 20: How to Evaluate Past Performance
- Why Return Alone Is Meaningless
- Risk-Adjusted Return Measures
- Visual Performance Evaluation
- Investment Insights
- Notes
- Part V: Fundamental Analysis
- Chapter 21: Fourteen Popular Fallacies, or What Not to Do Wrong
- Five Short Scenes
- The Fourteen Fallacies
- Chapter 22: Supply-Demand Analysis: Basic Economic Theory:
- Supply and Demand Defined
- The Problem of Quantifying Demand
- Understanding the Difference between Consumption and Demand
- The Need to Incorporate Demand
- Possible Methods for Incorporating Demand
- Why Traditional Fundamental Analysis Doesn't Work in the Gold Market
- Notes
- Chapter 23: Types of Fundamental Analysis
- The "Old Hand" Approach
- The Balance Table
- The Analogous Season Method
- Regression Analysis
- Index Models
- Chapter 24: The Role of Expectations
- Using Prior-Year Estimates Rather Than Revised Statistics
- Adding Expectations as a Variable in the Price-Forecasting Model
- The Influence of Expectations on Actual Statistics
- Defining New-Crop Expectations
- Chapter 25: Incorporating Inflation
- Notes
- Chapter 26: Seasonal Analysis
- The Concept of Seasonal Trading
- Cash versus Futures Price Seasonality
- The Role of Expectations
- Is It Real or Is It Probability?
- Calculating a Seasonal Index
- Chapter 27: Analyzing Market Response
- Evaluating Market Response for Repetitive Events.
- Chapter 28: Building a Forecasting Model: A Step-by-Step Approach:
- Chapter 29: Fundamental Analysis and Trading
- Fundamental versus Technical Analysis: A Greater Need for Caution
- Three Major Pitfalls in Fundamental Analysis
- Combining Fundamental Analysis with Technical Analysis and Money Management
- Why Bother with Fundamentals?
- Are Fundamentals Instantaneously Discounted?
- Fitting the News to Price Moves
- Fundamental Developments: Long-Term Implications versus Short-Term Response
- Summary
- Part VI: Futures Spreads and Options
- Chapter 30: The Concepts and Mechanics of Spread Trading
- Introduction
- Spreads-Definition and Basic Concepts
- Why Trade Spreads?
- Types of Spreads
- The General Rule
- The General Rule-Applicability and Nonapplicability
- Spread Rather Than Outright-An Example
- The Limited-Risk Spread
- The Spread Trade-Analysis and Approach
- Pitfalls and Points of Caution
- Notes
- Chapter 31: Intercommodity Spreads: Determining Contract Ratios
- Notes
- Chapter 32: Spread Trading in Stock Index Futures
- Intramarket Stock Index Spreads
- Intermarket Stock Index Spreads
- Chapter 33: Spread Trading in Currency Futures
- Intercurrency Spreads
- Intracurrency Spreads
- Notes
- Chapter 34: An Introduction to Options on Futures
- Preliminaries
- Factors That Determine Option Premiums
- Theoretical versus Actual Option Premiums
- Delta (the Neutral Hedge Ratio)
- Notes
- Chapter 35: Option Trading Strategies
- Comparing Trading Strategies
- Profit/Loss Profiles for Key Trading Strategies
- Notes
- Part VII: Practical Trading Guidelines
- Chapter 36: The Planned Trading Approach
- Step 1: Define a Trading Philosophy
- Step 2: Choose Markets to Be Traded
- Step 3: Specify Risk Control Plan
- Step 4: Establish a Planning Time Routine
- Step 5: Maintain a Trader's Spreadsheet.
- Step 6: Maintain a Trader's Diary
- Step 7: Analyze Personal Trading
- Notes
- Chapter 37: Seventy-Five Trading Rules and Market Observations
- Entering Trades
- Exiting Trades and Risk Control (Money Management)
- Other Risk-Control (Money Management) Rules
- Holding and Exiting Winning Trades
- Miscellaneous Principles and Rules
- Market Patterns
- Analysis and Review
- Chapter 38: 50 Market Wizard Lessons
- Notes
- Appendix A: Introduction to Regression Analysis
- Basics
- Meaning of Best Fit
- A Practical Example
- Reliability of the Regression Forecast
- Notes
- Appendix B: A Review of Elementary Statistics
- Measures of Dispersion
- Probability Distributions
- Reading the Normal Curve (Z) Table
- Populations and Samples
- Estimating the Population Mean and Standard Deviation from the Sample Statistics
- Sampling Distribution
- Central Limit Theorem
- Standard Error of the Mean
- Confidence Intervals
- The t-Test
- Notes
- Appendix C: Checking the Significance of the Regression Equation
- The Population Regression Line
- Basic Assumptions of Regression Analysis
- Testing the Significance of the Regression Coefficients
- Standard Error of the Regression
- Confidence Interval for an Individual Forecast
- Extrapolation
- Coefficient of Determination (r2)
- Spurious ("Nonsense") Correlations
- Notes
- Appendix D: The Multiple Regression Model
- Basics of Multiple Regression
- Applying the t-Test in the Multiple Regression Model
- Standard Error of the Regression
- Confidence Intervals for an Individual Forecast
- R2 and Corrected R2
- F-Test
- Analyzing a Regression Run
- Notes
- Appendix E: Analyzing the Regression Equation
- Outliers
- The Residual Plot
- Autocorrelation Defined
- The Durbin-Watson Statistic as a Measure of Autocorrelation
- The Implications of Autocorrelation.
- Missing Variables and Time Trend.
