Any happy returns structural changes and super cycles in markets
| Autor principal: | |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Libro electrónico |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Newark :
John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
2024.
|
| Edición: | 1st ed |
| Ver en Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull: | https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009828021206719 |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Cover
- Title Page
- Copyright Page
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- About the Author
- Chapter 1 An Introduction to Cycles and Secular Trends
- Repeating Cycles
- The Social and Political Cycle
- The Business Cycle
- Super Cycles in Financial Markets
- Psychology and Financial Market Super Cycles
- Part I Structural Trends and Market Super Cycles
- Chapter 2 Equity Cycles and Their Drivers
- The Four Phases of the Equity Cycle
- 1. Despair
- 2. Hope
- 3. Growth
- 4. Optimism
- The Drivers of the Four Phases
- The Cycle and Bear Markets
- Identifying the Transition from Bear Market to Bull Market
- Valuations and the Market Inflection
- Growth and the Market Inflection
- Combining Growth and Valuation as a Signal
- Inflation, Interest Rates and the Market Inflection
- Combining Growth and Interest Rates
- Chapter 3 Super Cycles and Their Drivers
- Super Cycles in Economic Activity
- The Modern Era: Growth from the 1820s
- Super Cycles in Inflation
- Super Cycles in Interest Rates
- Super Cycles and Government Debt
- Super Cycles in Inequality
- Super Cycles in Financial Markets
- Super Cycles in Equities
- 1. 1949-1968: Post-World War II Boom
- 2. 1982-2000: The Modern Cycle
- 3. 2009-2020: The Post-Financial-Crisis Cycle and Zero Interest Rates
- 1. 1968-1982: Inflation and Low Returns
- 2. 2000-2009: Bubbles and Troubles
- Part II Analysing Post-War Super Cycles
- Chapter 4 1949-1968: Post-World War II Boom
- International Agreements and Falling Risk Premia
- Strong Economic Growth
- Technological Innovation
- Low and Stable Real Interest Rates
- A Boom in World Trade
- A Baby Boom
- The Consumer and Credit Boom
- All-Consuming Consumerism
- Chapter 5 1968-1982: Inflation and Low Returns
- A Lost Decade for Investors
- The Bubble Before the Bust
- High Interest Rates and Low Growth.
- The Collapse of Bretton Woods
- Social Unrest and Strikes
- Collapsing Trade, Increased Protectionism and Regulation
- Increased Public Spending, Lower Margins
- The End of the Downturn
- Chapter 6 1982-2000: The Modern Cycle
- 1. The Great Moderation
- 2. Disinflation and a Lower Cost of Capital
- European Interest Rate Convergence
- Monetary Policy and the 'Fed Put'
- 3. Supply-Side Reforms (Including Deregulation and Privatisation)
- Tax Reforms
- Deregulation and Privatisation
- 4. The End of the Soviet Union (Lower Geopolitical Risk)
- 5. Globalisation and Cooperation
- Technology and the Labour Market
- 6. The Impact of China and India
- 7. Bubbles and Financial Innovation
- The Japan Bubble and the Tech Bubble
- Chapter 7 2000-2009: Bubbles and Troubles
- The Bursting of the Technology Bubble
- The Financial Crisis of 2007-2009
- Leverage and Financial Innovation
- The Decline in Long-Term Growth Expectations
- The Rise in the Equity Risk Premium
- The Negative Correlation Between Bonds and Equities
- Chapter 8 2009-2020: The Post-Financial-Crisis Cycle and Zero Interest Rates
- 1. Weak Growth but High Equity Returns
- The Aftershock of the Financial Crisis
- 2. The Era of Free Money
- The Collapse in Government Bond Yields
- 3. Low Volatility
- 4. Rising Equity Valuations
- 5. Technology and the Outperformance of Growth versus Value
- The Extraordinary Gap between Growth and Value
- 6. The Outperformance of the United States Over the Rest of the World
- Zero Rates and the Demand for Risk Assets
- Chapter 9 The Pandemic and the Return of 'Fat and Flat'
- Pandemic Pandemonium
- The Pandemic Shock
- Another Tech Bubble
- The Medicine Worked
- The Pandemic and Inflation
- From Disinflation to Reflation
- Getting Real - The Shift Higher in the Real Cost of Capital
- The Golden Rules Resurface.
- Sector Leadership and the Rotation Towards Value
- Part III The Post-Modern Cycle
- Chapter 10 The Post-Modern Cycle
- Structural Shifts and Opportunities
- Differences from the Modern Cycle
- 1. A Rise in the Cost of Capital
- The Re-emergence of Inflation
- 2. A Slowdown in Trend Growth
- 3. A Shift from Globalisation to Regionalisation
- 4. A Rise in the Cost of Labour and Commodities
- Post-Pandemic Reversal
- The Consequences and Investment Implications
- AI and the Labour Market
- 5. An Increase in Government Spending and Debt
- The Rise in Regulation and Industrial Policy
- Energy Transition Spending to Increase
- 6. A Rise in Capital and Infrastructure Spending
- 7. Changing Demographics
- Ageing Populations and Deficits
- Ageing Populations and New Markets
- 8. An Increase in Geopolitical Tensions and the Multipolar World
- Chapter 11 The Post-Modern Cycle and Technology
- Characteristics of Technology Revolutions
- Exuberance, Speculation and Bubbles
- The Dominance Effects
- The Emergence of Secondary Technologies
- Can Technology Remain the Biggest Sector?
- Can the Current Group of Dominant Technology Companies Remain Leaders?
- Why Newer Technologies May Enhance Productivity
- Weak Productivity in the Internet World
- From 'Nice to Have' to 'Need to Have'
- Productivity and the Impact of AI
- The PEARLs Framework for AI and Technology
- The Pioneers
- The Enablers
- The Adaptors
- The Reformers
- The Laggards
- Chapter 12 The Post-Modern Cycle: Opportunities in the 'Old Economy'
- Opportunities in the 'Old Economy'
- Defence Spending
- Infrastructure Spending
- Green Spending
- Government Policy and Spending
- Commodities Spending
- How Investment Markets Can Help Fund the Capex Boom
- The Future of Jobs
- Don't Forget the Power of Nostalgia
- On Your Bike.
- Chapter 13 Summary and Conclusions
- Cycles
- Super Cycles
- The Post-Modern Cycle
- References
- Suggested Reading
- Index
- EULA.
