Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2023 - Update : Resilience Under Uncertainty

Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2023 - Update Resilience Under Uncertainty

The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a regular publication on regional economic growth and development in Emerging Asia. It focuses on the economic conditions of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PD...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (author)
Corporate Author: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, author, issuing body (author)
Format: eBook
Language:Inglés
Published: Paris : OECD Publishing 2023.
Edition:1st ed
Series:Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India Series
Subjects:
Economic forecasting > Southeast Asia.
Economic forecasting > India.
Economic forecasting > China.
See on Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull:https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009764928906719
Table of Contents:
  • Intro
  • Executive summary
  • Growth in Emerging Asia needs to cope with external headwinds
  • Regional and domestic demand supports growth
  • Financial markets are relatively stable but monetary policy manoeuvres must be conducted carefully
  • Labour markets show signs of recovery
  • Introduction
  • Overview and main findings
  • Table 1. Real GDP Growth in ASEAN, China and India, 2022-24 (%)
  • Recent developments and near-term outlook
  • ASEAN-5
  • Brunei Darussalam and Singapore
  • CLM countries
  • China and India
  • Export growth contracted owing to a decline in demand for exported goods
  • Figure 1. Exports in selected Emerging Asian economies, Q1 2022-Q2 2023 (% of GDP)
  • Impact of global uncertainty on countries will depend on their degree of export dependency
  • Figure 2. Evolution of selected primary commodity prices, January 2017 to June 2023
  • Regional demand helped sustain exports
  • Figure 3. Emerging Asia's exports to and imports from regional and global destinations (% of total)
  • Figure 4. ASEAN exports to selected Asian and global destinations (% of total)
  • Growth in services exports is expanding and has overtaken growth in goods exports
  • Figure 5. Export growth in goods vs. services in selected Emerging Asian countries (%)
  • FDI inflows will boost the region's export sector
  • Monetary policies will remain tight amid high inflation and upside risks
  • Table 2. Consumer price inflation and core inflation in the OECD and Emerging Asia, July 2023
  • Figure 6. Consumer Price Index and core inflation in selected Emerging Asian countries, January 2021 to July 2023 (%)
  • Financial markets in the region are relatively stable, but reactions to stress vary across countries
  • Figure 7. Benchmark stock market indices of selected Emerging Asian economies, January 2022 to August 2023.
  • Regional bond markets outperform equity markets
  • Figure 8. Net portfolio equity and debt flows in selected ASEAN economies, January to June 2023 (USD billion)
  • Portfolio outflows in some economies will weaken local currencies
  • Figure 9. 1-year government bond yield spread and foreign exchange rates in selected Emerging Asian economies, January 2022 to August 2023
  • Labour markets in most Emerging Asian economies show signs of recovery
  • Figure 10. Unemployment rate in selected Emerging Asian economies, Q2 2019 to Q2 2023 (%)
  • Global factors pose the greatest challenges to the growth outlook for Emerging Asia
  • References
  • Acknowledgements.

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