OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 2.
The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 2 includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies.
| Autor principal: | |
|---|---|
| Autor Corporativo: | |
| Formato: | Libro electrónico |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Paris :
Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development
2022.
|
| Edición: | 1st ed |
| Colección: | OECD Economic Outlook Series
|
| Materias: | |
| Ver en Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull: | https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009707509406719 |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Intro
- Acknowledgements
- Editorial Confronting the Crisis
- Policies for a stronger recovery
- Summing up
- 1 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
- Introduction
- Growth is slowing and financial conditions have tightened
- Global growth has lost momentum amidst high inflation
- Trade growth held up in the first half of 2022, but recent indicators have weakened
- Financial market conditions have tightened significantly
- Global growth is projected to weaken further with inflation slowing gradually
- Key risks and vulnerabilities
- The impact of lower energy imports to Europe from Russia could prove more severe than expected
- Monetary policy tightening highlights pre-existing financial vulnerabilities
- Rising private sector debt-service burdens and lower bond market liquidity are keys risks in the advanced economies
- Financial vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies are exacerbated by external spillovers
- Calibrating monetary policy responses will be challenging
- Reduced uncertainty and lower commodity prices are upside risks
- Policy requirements
- Further monetary policy tightening is necessary in most countries
- Targeted fiscal policy support is needed
- Inflationary pressures and stretched budgets limit the scope for policy support in emerging-market economies
- Structural policy efforts need to be enhanced
- Bibliography
- Annex 1.A. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections
- 2 Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
- Argentina
- Economic activity is stagnating
- Fiscal and monetary policies are tightening
- Growth is slowing and risks are tilted to the downside
- Structural reforms to boost productivity could reduce imbalances
- Australia
- Inflationary pressures are rising due to global factors and a tight labour market.
- Macroeconomic policy is becoming more restrictive
- Economic growth will slow after a rapid recovery
- Reducing emissions from greenhouse gases remains a priority
- Austria
- Growth is slowing amidst rising inflation
- Fiscal spending partly offsets energy price inflation
- Economic growth will be weak
- Reforms could make growth stronger and more sustainable
- Belgium
- The economy has slowed amid a deteriorating global outlook
- Public finances are under pressure
- Growth will be low but improve gradually
- Ensuring fiscal sustainability and energy security is key
- Brazil
- Activity surprised on the upside in the first half of 2022
- Restrictive monetary and fiscal policies are on the way
- Economic growth is slowing
- An overhaul of the fiscal framework is needed
- Bulgaria
- Bulgaria faces weaker growth and high inflation
- Extensive policy supports have been put in place
- A resilient rebound is expected after the near-term slowdown
- Structural reform needs are pressing
- Canada
- Economic activity is cooling
- Near-term policy goals are to tame inflation and provide living-cost relief
- Inflation will moderate as growth slows
- Staying focused on sustainable long-term growth
- Chile
- Activity has cooled down during 2022
- Commitment to the fiscal rule and restrictive monetary policy in 2023-24
- After a contraction in 2023, growth will resume in 2024
- Policies should aim for higher productivity and a more progressive tax system
- China
- Disruptions due to pandemic-related lockdowns persist
- Monetary and fiscal policy have become more supportive
- Activity will recover only slowly
- Structural reforms are needed to reinvigorate the economy
- Colombia
- The economy is cooling down
- Fiscal and monetary policy will remain tight
- Growth is projected to weaken.
- Streamlining the tax and benefit system and supporting the green transition
- Costa Rica
- Exports have been driving growth amid high inflation
- Fiscal prudence and tight monetary policy will continue
- Growth will gradually strengthen after slowing in 2023
- Pushing ahead with structural reform would increase growth and equity
- Croatia
- Surging energy prices and uncertainty are stalling the strong rebound
- Fiscal and monetary conditions will remain supportive
- Rising investment will rekindle growth
- Addressing skills shortages and improving the economy's resilience will help sustain growth
- Czech Republic
- The economy has slowed markedly
- A tight macroeconomic policy stance is warranted
- High uncertainty will continue to weigh on growth
- Strengthening labour supply and accelerating the green transition would support growth
- Denmark
- The economy has cooled
- Fiscal and monetary policies will remain prudent
- Strong inflation will dent economic growth
- Containing inflationary pressures is a priority
- Estonia
- The economy is slowing
- Balancing adequate support to the vulnerable with the need to tame inflation
- The economy is projected to slow amid high inflation and uncertainty
- Policies need to maintain incentives for energy savings, strengthen the energy network and facilitate the green transition
- Euro area
- Disruption of energy supplies and high inflation are weighing on the outlook
- Fiscal policy needs to avoid providing stimulus in a time of high inflation
- Growth will slow sharply in 2023, gradually resuming afterwards
- Supporting long-term resilience and the green transition
- Finland
- An economic downturn has begun
- Fiscal policy is mildly expansionary but will become neutral in 2024
- The economy is heading into a short-lived recession.
- Further measures are needed to enhance fiscal and environmental sustainability
- France
- Growth has slowed
- Fiscal measures are partly cushioning external shocks
- Domestic demand growth is slowing
- Supporting more sustainable growth
- Germany
- Uncertainty and high inflation exert a drag on growth
- Fiscal policy is supporting households and firms
- The recovery is hampered by the war in Ukraine and high energy prices
- Expanding renewables to raise energy security
- Greece
- Rebounding tourism and fiscal support have driven strong economic growth
- Fiscal measures are expected to provide continued support to the economy
- High uncertainty and rising prices are projected to moderate growth
- Well-designed fiscal measures can address both short- and long-term energy challenges
- Hungary
- The economy is slowing in face of headwinds
- Monetary policy continues to combat inflation
- Growth will be restrained by inflation before picking up in 2024
- Securing stronger growth
- Iceland
- Strong exports are driving the economy
- Fiscal and monetary policies are tightening
- The economy will slow considerably
- Investing in energy diversification and security is important
- India
- The strong recovery has slowed
- Macroeconomic policies are turning restrictive
- The economy will not escape the global slowdown
- Progress in financial inclusion and energy security can be further extended
- Indonesia
- Recent developments provide mixed signals
- Fiscal and monetary policies should remain tight
- Steady growth is projected to persist
- Sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms can boost productivity
- Ireland
- Rising prices are lowering real household incomes
- Windfall tax revenues will boost public finances
- Risks to domestic activity are considerable.
- Sustainable public finances are needed to deliver on long-term reforms
- Israel
- Economic activity is robust
- Macroeconomic policy is tightening
- Growth is set to moderate
- Policy support should be temporary and targeted
- Italy
- Activity is slowing
- Monetary policy is tightening, but fiscal policy remains supportive
- Growth will pick up only slowly, with risks tilted to the downside
- Efficient spending of Next Generation EU funds will be key to support growth
- Japan
- External pressures are weighing on the domestic demand-driven recovery
- Fiscal measures are moderating the impact of external shocks
- The economic recovery will continue, but downside risks have risen
- Accelerating structural reforms will be critical to boost productivity and wages
- Korea
- The economy faces headwinds
- Macroeconomic policies are tightening
- Growth is projected to weaken
- Structural challenges call for policy action
- Latvia
- The economy is slowing due to high inflation and uncertainty
- Fiscal policy is tightening
- Economic growth will slow while inflation remains high
- Investing in energy security and addressing labour shortages
- Lithuania
- The economy is slowing in face of continued headwinds
- Fiscal stimulus is being gradually withdrawn
- Growth will remain restrained
- Securing stronger growth
- Luxembourg
- The economy is slowing
- Fiscal policy will remain supportive
- Economic growth will slow significantly before gradually recovering
- To embed resilience, policy should focus on productivity and investment
- Mexico
- The outlook for activity is worsening and inflationary pressures remain high
- Fiscal policy remains prudent and monetary policy will need to remain restrictive
- Growth will be moderate in the near term
- Boosting productivity is a key priority
- Netherlands
- The outlook has darkened.
- Support measures and higher public spending will increase the fiscal deficit.
