ITF transport outlook 2017

The ITF Transport Outlook provides an overview of recent trends and near-term prospects for the transport sector at a global level, as well as long-term prospects for transport demand to 2050, for freight (maritime, air and surface), passenger transport (car, rail and air) and CO2 emissions.

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal:	International Transport Forum (author)
Autores Corporativos:	International Transport Forum, author (author), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, author
Formato:	Libro electrónico
Idioma:	Inglés
Publicado:	Paris : OECD [2017]
Edición:	2017th ed
Colección:	ITF Transport Outlook
Materias:	Transportation.
Ver en Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull:	https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009706339406719

Tabla de Contenidos:

Intro
Editorial
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Table of contents
Executive summary
Background
Findings
Policy insights
The 2016 Paris climate agreement must be translated into concrete actions for the transport sector.
Policy will need to embrace and respond to disruptive innovation in transport.
Reducing CO2 from urban mobility needs more than better vehicle and fuel technology.
Targeted land-use policies can reduce the transport infrastructure needed to provide more equitable access in cities.
Governments need to develop planning tools to adapt to uncertainties created by changing patterns of consumption, production and distribution.
Part I. Global outlook for transport
Chapter 1. The transport sector today
Box 1.1. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
Table 1.1. Transport related targets in the UN Sustainable Development Goals
Transport and the economic environment
Gross Domestic Product
Table 1.2. GDP growth, percentage change over previous year
Table 1.3. Annual GDP growth
International trade
Table 1.4. World merchandise trade, 2012-17
Figure 1.1. Monthly index of world trade, advanced and emerging economies
Figure 1.2. Elasticity of global trade to GDP
Oil prices
Figure 1.3. Primary commodity price indices, 2011-17
Freight
Maritime freight
Figure 1.4. World seaborne trade
Figure 1.5. World seaborne trade by type of cargo and country group
Figure 1.6. World container throughput
Air freight
Figure 1.7. World air freight traffic 2008-15
Surface freight
Figure 1.8. Surface freight volumes by mode of transport
Passenger transport
Car use
Figure 1.9. Passenger-kilometres by private car
Figure 1.10. Motorisation rates in selected developing countries
Box 1.2. Towards zero deaths and serious injuries.
Figure 1.11. Road fatalities per 1 000 inhabitants
Rail passenger traffic
Figure 1.12. Rail passenger traffic
Air passenger transport
Figure 1.13. World air passenger traffic, international and domestic
Figure 1.14. Top 10 busiest airports in 2015 and evolution from 2000
CO2 emissions from transport
Figure 1.15. CO2 emissions by sector
Spending on inland transport infrastructure
Figure 1.16. Investment in inland transport infrastructure by region 1998-2014
Figure 1.17. Volume of investment in inland transport infrastructure by region 1995-2014
Figure 1.18. Distribution of infrastructure investment across rail, road and inland waterways
Figure 1.19. Share of public road maintenance in total road expenditure
References
Chapter 2. Transport demand and CO2 emissions to 2050
Passenger transport
Figure 2.1. Demand for passenger transport by mode
Domestic non-urban transport
Table 2.1. Growth in GDP and domestic transport demand
Figure 2.2. Domestic aviation by region
Figure 2.3. Passenger car ownership by region
Figure 2.4. Length of high-speed rail network in selected countries or regions
Urban mobility
Table 2.2. Urban transport by mode compared to economic growth
Figure 2.5. Urban transport demand by mode
International aviation
Figure 2.6. International air transport demand by region
Freight transport
Figure 2.7. Freight transport demand by mode
Table 2.3. Annual growth rate for freight transport demand, compared to GDP
Maritime transport
Surface freight
Figure 2.8. Surface freight tonne-kilometres by region
Table 2.4. Freight intensity as a function of GDP per capita
Figure 2.9. Road freight activity by sector
CO2 emissions
Table 2.5. Per capita emissions from transport
Figure 2.10. CO2 emissions by sector.
Box 2.1. ITF's Decarbonising Transport project
Figure 2.11. CO2 emissions by sector and scenario
References
Annex 2.A. The ITF modelling framework
Figure 2.A1. The ITF modelling framework
Part II. Sectoral outlook
Chapter 3. International freight
Underlying trade projections
Table 3.1. Comparison of the alternative trade scenarios for the 2015-50 period
Figure 3.1. Value of trade by region
Figure 3.2. Value of trade by commodity
International freight transport to 2050
Figure 3.3. Freight transport demand in alternative trade elasticity scenarios
Figure 3.4. International freight volume by mode
Figure 3.5. International freight and related CO2 emissions by corridor
CO2 emissions from international freight
Quantifying emissions
Table 3.2. Alternative scenarios for CO2 emissions
Long-term outlook for CO2 emissions
Figure 3.6. CO2 emissions from international freight by mode
Figure 3.7. CO2 emissions from maritime transport by commodity
Figure 3.8. Road freight CO2 intensity by region in the 4 degree scenario of the IEA Mobility Model
Alternative pathways
Figure 3.9. The impact of policy measures on emissions
Impact of trade liberalisation
Figure 3.10. Impact of trade liberalisation on tonne-kilometres and CO2 emissions
Challenges in container shipping
Container port capacity
Figure 3.11. Expansion plans compared with traffic projections by sea area
Table 3.3. Container traffic by sea area in 2030 and 2050 and planned capacity 2030
The global container shipping network
Figure 3.12. Ship size development of various ship types 1996-2015
Figure 3.13. Market concentration of container shipping lines 2000-16
Figure 3.14. Container ship capacity on Far East-Mediterranean route by alliance and by port (2015)
Box 3.1. Global oversupply of vessels.
Figure 3.15. Global merchant fleet and seaborne trade, 1995-2015
Challenges of hinterland transport
Table 3.4. Capacity needs for surface freight by continent
Table 3.5. Capacity needs for surface freight by continent within 50 km of centroids and ports
Box 3.2. The Physical Internet
Decision making under uncertainty
Consumption patterns
Production patterns
Energy production
Alternative shipping routes
References
Annex 3.A. ITF International Freight Model
Transport network model
Centroids
Freight mode choice model
Weight/value model
Generation of the model outputs
Figure 3.A1. Schematic description of the ITF international freight model
Freight transport network: A detailed representation
Figure 3.A2. Freight transport networks
Port capacity
Road and rail capacity: Adding constraints
Table 3.A1. Statistical and capacity characterisation of road network
Table 3.A2. Rail line engineering capacity
Table 3.A3. Rail infrastructure classification and freight capacity estimation
Chapter 4. International passenger aviation
Modelling global passenger demand
Competition
Box 4.1. Quantifying competition in the air market
Figure 4.1. Competition in international aviation
Network expansion
Figure 4.2. Relationship between distance, GDP and air connections
Three alternative scenarios for network evolution
Figure 4.3. Share of low-cost carriers in regional, international flights
Passenger demand for air transport until 2050
Analysis of global demand
Figure 4.4. Demand for passenger aviation by region
The elasticity of travel demand to income
Regional differences
Figure 4.5. Regional breakdown of passenger-kilometres
Impact of entry restrictions
Table 4.1. International connectivity for selected countries.
Figure 4.6. Annual growth of the size of the air network, by origin region
CO2 emissions from international aviation
Box 4.3. Airport Carbon Accreditation Programme
Figure 4.7. CO2 emissions from airports participating in the Airport Carbon Accreditation program
Quantifying CO2 emissions from aviation
Table 4.2. Breakdown of CO2 emissions from aviation
CO2 emissions from passenger international aviation up to 2030
Figure 4.8. CO2 emissions from international aviation
Long-term prospects
Accessibility by air
Global indicator of accessibility by air
Air accessibility today
Figure 4.9. Average travel time to the alpha-cities
Figure 4.10. Average travel time to the alpha-cities by region, 2004-15
Outlook for accessibility by air
Figure 4.11. Average number of alpha-cities reachable in less than 24 hours
References
Annex 4.A. Modelling framework for international aviation (passenger)
Passenger demand projections: modelling framework
Figure 4.A1. Schematic description of the ITF international aviation model
CO2 emissions
Accessibility by air
Figure 4.A2. Geographical distribution of cities and alpha-cities
Table 4.A1. Data sources
Chapter 5. Mobility in cities
Modelling passenger transport demand in cities
Figure 5.1. Total population of cities over 300 000 inhabitants
Figure 5.2. GDP per capita in cities and countries by region
Towards a global model for passenger transport demand in cities
Box 5.1. City Mobility database
Transport policy scenarios
Baseline
ROG Scenario
LUT Scenario
Table 5.1. Specification of the three policy scenarios for city passenger transport
Passenger mobility in cities up to 2050
Mode shares
Figure 5.3. Car share in cities by region
Figure 5.4. Mobility by mode of transport, Asia and North America.
Table 5.2. Share of car and public transport by region.

ITF transport outlook 2017

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