OECD economic outlook. 98, November 2015

OECD economic outlook 98, November 2015 98, November 2015 /

This OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current economic situation and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. The present issue covers the outlook to end 2017 for both OECD countries and selected non OECD economies. Together with a wide range of c...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (author)
Corporate Author: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, author (author)
Format: eBook
Language:Inglés
Published: Paris : OECD [2015]
Edition:2nd ed
Subjects:
Economic forecasting.
See on Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull:https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009706190006719
Table of Contents:
  • Intro
  • Table of contents
  • Summary of projections
  • Editorial: Trade Winds Blowing No Good?
  • Chapter 1. General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation
  • Introduction
  • The outlook
  • Figure 1.1. Global GDP growth is set to recover slowly
  • Figure 1.2. Global import volume growth has slowed this year
  • Table 1.1. The global recovery will gain momentum only slowly
  • Figure 1.3. Financial conditions in advanced economies have become less supportive
  • Figure 1.4. GDP growth projections for the major economies
  • Figure 1.5. Inflation is likely to remain weak
  • Table 1.2. OECD labour market conditions will improve slowly
  • Figure 1.6. Labour market outcomes should improve gradually in the major OECD economies
  • Box 1.1. The labour market and fiscal impact of the European refugee surge
  • The number of refugees into Europe is rising but still small compared with total net migration
  • Main issues and risks for economic prospects
  • Figure 1.7. Global trade growth is unusually weak this year
  • Figure 1.8. Non-OECD import volume growth has fallen sharply this year
  • Figure 1.9. Significant changes are occurring in Chinese trade flows
  • Figure 1.10. Chinese merchandise export growth to selected partner countries
  • Figure 1.11. Trade linkages with China in 2014
  • Table 1.3. World trade will strengthen gradually
  • Figure 1.12. Rebalancing is continuing in China
  • Box 1.2. The global impact of weaker demand growth in China
  • GDP growth impact of an adverse two-year domestic demand shock in China
  • Figure 1.13. Financial conditions in emerging market economies have tightened
  • Box 1.3. Rising US policy interest rates and spillovers to emerging market economies
  • Portfolio capital flows to EMEs during past episodes of US monetary policy tightening
  • Measures of risk aversion.
  • Financial market conditions during past episodes of US monetary policy tightening
  • Figure 1.14. EMEs' external vulnerabilities increased due to exchange rate depreciations
  • Figure 1.15. Credit has increased substantially in some EMEs
  • Box 1.4. Growth shortfalls in the euro area and Japan
  • Estimated impact on GDP growth in 2015 of changes in forces acting since June 2014
  • Figure 1.16. Conditions in the banking sector across euro area countries continue to differ
  • Figure 1.17. Little progress with deleveraging in the euro area and Japan
  • Box 1.5. Revisions to potential output growth
  • Revision to potential output growth for 2016
  • Policy requirements
  • Table 1.4. Fiscal positions will continue to improve
  • Box 1.6. The impact of an increase in public investment in OECD economies
  • First-year GDP effects of a government investment stimulus in OECD economies
  • The impact of a government investment stimulus on budget deficits and government debt
  • Figure 1.18. The cyclical component of budget deficits
  • Bibliography
  • Annex 1.1. Policy and other Assumptions Underlying the Projections
  • Annex 1.2. Indicators of Potential Financial Vulnerabilities
  • Table 1.A2.1. Indicators of potential financial vulnerabilities
  • Table 1.A2.2. Financial-accounts-related risk factors to financial stability
  • Chapter 2. Cool Policy: Climate Change Mitigation Supporting Growth
  • Summary
  • Introduction
  • Figure 2.1. Level of additional risk due to climate change
  • Box 2.1. What's needed: Key policy measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
  • Why act? What's the problem with global warming?
  • Action is needed
  • Box 2.2. Two tragedies
  • Box 2.3. A worldwide cap-and-trade system? Seemingly impracticable, but useful as a reference point for other options
  • Figure 2.2. The carbon tax in OECD and seven partner countries.
  • Figure 2.3. Sales of petroleum fuels subject to British Columbia's carbon tax
  • Financial markets and climate change
  • Insurance: coping with climate change - and reducing it?
  • Figure 2.4. Economic losses from climatological, meteorological and hydrological disasters
  • Greenhouse gas mitigation and the short-term outlook
  • Box 2.4. Integrated policies reduced Swedish residential greenhouse gas emissions by 80%
  • Heat production costs in single-family houses with different heating alternatives
  • Climate change policy and fiscal sustainability
  • Figure 2.5. Economy-wide effective tax rates on CO2 from energy
  • Conclusion
  • Bibliography
  • Chapter 3. Developments in Individual OECD Countries and Selected Non-Member Economies
  • Australia
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • Chile
  • China
  • Colombia
  • Costa Rica
  • Czech Republic
  • Denmark
  • Estonia
  • Euro area
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Hungary
  • Iceland
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Ireland
  • Israel
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Korea
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Luxembourg
  • Mexico
  • Netherlands
  • New Zealand
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Russia
  • Slovak Republic
  • Slovenia
  • South Africa
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • Turkey
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
  • Statistical Annex
  • Annex Tables
  • Annex Table 1. Real GDP
  • Annex Table 2. Nominal GDP
  • Annex Table 3. Real private consumption expenditure
  • Annex Table 4. Real public consumption expenditure
  • Annex Table 5. Real total gross fixed capital formation
  • Annex Table 6. Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation
  • Annex Table 7. Real gross residential fixed capital formation
  • Annex Table 8. Real total domestic demand
  • Annex Table 9. Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP
  • Annex Table 10. Output gaps
  • Annex Table 11. Compensation per employee.
  • Annex Table 12. Labour productivity
  • Annex Table 13. Unemployment rates: national definitions
  • Annex Table 14. Harmonised unemployment rates
  • Annex Table 15. Labour force, employment and unemployment
  • Annex Table 16. GDP deflators
  • Annex Table 17. Private consumption deflators
  • Annex Table 18. Consumer price indices
  • Annex Table 19. Oil and other primary commodity markets
  • Annex Table 20. Employment and labour force
  • Annex Table 21. Potential GDP and productive capital stock
  • Annex Table 22. Structural unemployment and unit labour costs
  • Annex Table 23. Household saving rates
  • Annex Table 24. Gross national saving
  • Annex Table 25. General government total outlays
  • Annex Table 26. General government total tax and non-tax receipts
  • Annex Table 27. General government financial balances
  • Annex Table 28. General government cyclically adjusted balances
  • Annex Table 29. General government underlying balances
  • Annex Table 30. General government underlying primary balances
  • Annex Table 31. General government net debt interest payments
  • Annex Table 32. General government gross financial liabilities
  • Annex Table 33. General government net financial liabilities
  • Annex Table 34. Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt
  • Annex Table 35. Short-term interest rates
  • Annex Table 36. Long-term interest rates
  • Annex Table 37. Nominal exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar)
  • Annex Table 38. Effective exchange rates
  • Annex Table 39. Export volumes of goods and services
  • Annex Table 40. Import volumes of goods and services
  • Annex Table 41. Export prices of goods and services
  • Annex Table 42. Import prices of goods and services
  • Annex Table 43. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative consumer prices
  • Annex Table 44. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative unit labour costs.
  • Annex Table 45. Export performance for total goods and services
  • Annex Table 46. Shares in world exports and imports
  • Annex Table 47. Geographical structure of world trade growth
  • Annex Table 48. Trade balances for goods and services
  • Annex Table 49. Balance of primary income
  • Annex Table 50. Balance of secondary income
  • Annex Table 51. Current account balances
  • Annex Table 52. Current account balances as a percentage of GDP
  • Annex Table 53. Structure of current account balances of major world regions
  • Annex Table 54. Export market growth in goods and services
  • Annex Table 55. Import penetration
  • Annex Table 56. Quarterly demand and output projections
  • Annex Table 57. Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections
  • Annex Table 58. Contributions to changes in real GDP in OECD countries
  • Annex Table 59. Household wealth and indebtedness
  • Annex Table 60. House prices
  • Annex Table 61. House price ratios.

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