OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2021.

OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2021.

This edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook reviews developments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic for government borrowing needs, funding conditions and funding strategies in the OECD area.

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: OECD (-)
Autor Corporativo: OECD, author (author)
Formato: Libro electrónico
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Paris : OECD Publishing 2021.
Colección:OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook
Materias:
Loans, Foreign.
OECD countries.
Debts, External.
Public Administration
Political Science
Ver en Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull:https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009704566106719
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Intro
  • Foreword
  • Acknowledgements
  • Editorial
  • Abbreviations and acronyms
  • Executive summary
  • Government funding needs and debts, which surged dramatically in 2020 as fiscal deficits increased and economies contracted in the wake COVID-19 crisis, will remain high in 2021
  • Interest rates on government securities have declined to record lows, limiting the debt service burden
  • Shortened maturities combined with continued large new borrowing needs mean higher rollover ratios and refinancing risk
  • Prudent debt management will be required as financing needs for debt repayments soar and the outlook for the global economy remains uncertain
  • 1 Sovereign borrowing outlook for OECD countries
  • 1.1. Introduction
  • 1.2. Sovereign borrowing hit a record high in 2020 and is projected to continue rising in 2021
  • 1.3. Key features of sovereign borrowing during the COVID-19 crisis
  • 1.3.1. New debt has been issued at lower costs
  • 1.3.2. Growing number of new maturity lines and new instruments
  • 1.3.3. Heavy reliance on short-term debt issuance
  • 1.3.4. Borrowing operations have been adapted to rapidly changing circumstances
  • 1.4. Sovereign debt ratios reached all-time highs in many countries
  • 1.4.1. Prolonged low interest rates have contained the impact of higher financing needs on government interest expenses
  • 1.4.2. The average maturity of outstanding debt has dropped from the pre-pandemic peaks in most countries
  • 1.5. The outlook calls for a cautious approach to debt management
  • 1.5.1. Rollover ratios as well as auction sizes are rising in many countries
  • 1.5.2. Emergency response capacities
  • References
  • Annex 1.A. Methods and sources
  • Definitions and concepts used in the Sovereign Borrowing Outlook Survey
  • Coverage of institutions: Central government
  • Coverage of types of debt: Marketable debt
  • Terminology.
  • Regional aggregates
  • Calculations and data sources
  • Average term to maturity
  • Notes
  • 2 Revisiting sovereign refinancing risk in light of COVID-19 crisis
  • 2.1. Introduction
  • 2.2. Sovereign refinancing risk
  • 2.2.1. Assessment of sovereign refinancing risk
  • 2.3. Impact of the epidemic on sovereign refinancing needs in the OECD area
  • 2.4. Measuring refinancing risk through key indicators
  • 2.4.1. Key indicators
  • Average Time to Maturity (ATM)
  • Rollover Ratio (ROR 1Y)
  • Rollover Ratio (ROR 3Y)
  • 2.4.2. Limitations of indicators
  • 2.5. Means of managing refinancing risk
  • 2.5.1. Benchmark redemption profile of a theoretical model
  • 2.5.2. Strategic design of funding strategies with refinancing risk considerations
  • 2.5.3. Bond switches and buybacks
  • 2.5.4. Building flexibility in case of market disruption
  • Liquidity buffer practice:
  • Diversification in source of funding:
  • Establishing credit lines:
  • Access to liquid money markets:
  • Role of transparency and communication in times of stress:
  • References
  • Notes
  • 3 The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on emerging market borrowing
  • 3.1. Introduction
  • 3.2. The pandemic has weighed greatly on emerging market sovereign issuers
  • 3.2.1. Funding conditions have improved, but vulnerability to global risk sentiment remains high
  • 3.2.2. Debt issuance has picked up, though remained lower than historical averages in some regions
  • Emerging Asia remained the largest regional issuer, while many other regions lagged behind historical averages
  • Upper-middle-income countries maintained an upward trend despite the pandemic, thanks to accommodative monetary policies
  • 3.3. Currency and maturity structure varied widely among country groups
  • 3.3.1. T-Bill issuance by non-investment grade issuers has increased.
  • 3.3.2. The pandemic is spurring the issuance of new instruments
  • 3.3.3. Domestic currency securities continue to dominate EM issuance, while some issuers faced challenges in regaining access to international markets
  • 3.3.4. USD remained the most popular foreign currency of debt issuance
  • 3.4. Increased financing and shorter maturities amplified medium-term refinancing needs
  • 3.4.1. Emerging market issuers should be vigilant amid continued global uncertainty
  • References
  • Annex 3.A. Methods and sources
  • Primary sovereign bond market data and country groupings
  • Credit ratings data
  • Notes
  • Annex A. OECD 2020 Survey on Primary Markets Developments
  • Annex A is available ONLINE ONLY at the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/48828791-en
  • List of tables in Annex A
  • Annex B. OECD 2020 Survey on Liquidity in Government Bond Secondary Markets
  • Annex B is available ONLINE ONLY at the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/48828791-en
  • List of tables in Annex B
  • Annex A. OECD 2020 Survey on Primary Markets Developments
  • Annex B. OECD 2020 Survey on Liquidity in Government Bond Secondary Markets.

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