OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 1.
The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 1, highlights the improved prospects for the global economy due to vaccinations and stronger policy support, but also points to uneven progress across countries and key risks and challenges in maintaining and strengthening the recovery.
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| Autor Corporativo: | |
| Formato: | Libro electrónico |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
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Paris :
OECD Publishing
2021.
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| Colección: | OECD Economic Outlook
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| Materias: | |
| Ver en Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull: | https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009703249406719 |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Intro
- Acknowledgements
- Editorial: No ordinary recovery
- 1. General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation
- Introduction
- Recent developments
- The outlook is for a significant but uneven recovery
- The global recovery is projected to strengthen as vaccination deployment becomes widespread
- Inflation is expected to increase temporarily but the longer-term outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks
- Trade prospects are improving, but imbalances may widen
- The outlook is subject to upside and downside risks
- Significant uncertainty remains about the pace of vaccine deployment and the evolution of the virus
- Excess saving poses upside risks to household consumption
- Companies have resisted well, but performance has varied across sectors and company sizes
- Pandemic-related risks are still high in some emerging-market economies
- Policy requirements
- The pace of vaccine production and deployment needs to be accelerated
- Monetary policy
- Fiscal policy
- Structural reforms are needed to improve resilience, facilitate reallocation and strengthen growth prospects
- Bibliography
- Annex 1.A. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections
- 2. Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
- Argentina
- Renewed virus outbreaks have led to the retightening of containment measures
- Economic activity is recovering slowly
- Policies have supported household incomes and firms
- Growing macroeconomic imbalances limit the recovery
- Reducing imbalances and facilitating structural change are key for the recovery
- Australia
- Virus outbreaks were successfully contained
- Activity has rebounded, but the recovery remains uneven
- Fiscal policy support is unwinding
- Domestic demand will drive growth
- Policies should remain supportive and focus on enabling reallocation
- Austria.
- A localised confinement was imposed to curb the propagation of the virus
- Travel restrictions have severely impeded tourism
- Massive fiscal stimulus is supporting jobs and businesses
- Progress with vaccinations will boost the recovery
- The government should increase public spending on infrastructure and skills
- Belgium
- The epidemic has surged sporadically
- Uncertainty continues to hamper private spending
- Policy remains supportive
- The recovery will be buoyant
- Policies should support resource reallocation
- Brazil
- The sanitary situation is worrisome
- The recovery has been shaky
- Policy support is being reduced
- The recovery will depend on the evolution of the pandemic
- Creating fiscal space will allow financing policies that lift potential growth
- Bulgaria
- COVID-19 continues to weigh on the economy
- The economy has proven resilient in the face of the second and third waves
- Prudent fiscal policy before COVID-19 has permitted a strong fiscal response
- The economic recovery is set to continue
- Right policy choices would improve the economic outlook
- Canada
- Canada is hit by a third wave of the pandemic, but vaccination is accelerating
- Economic activity has been more resilient than expected
- The federal government has committed to further support for households and businesses
- Economic growth will accelerate in the second half of this year
- Policy needs to nurture business recovery and strengthen well-being
- Chile
- The vaccination rollout has been rapid
- The recovery is gathering pace
- A solid policy response is cushioning the negative COVID-19 effects
- GDP will bounce back to its pre-pandemic level by early 2022
- Policies to support employment and productivity are needed
- China
- Vaccination rollout is relatively slow
- The recovery is gaining momentum.
- Monetary policy will turn more neutral and fiscal support will moderate
- Growth is to return to its gradually slowing pre-pandemic path
- Turning crisis into an opportunity to initiate key reforms
- Colombia
- A second wave of COVID-19 infections hit Colombia in early 2021
- Economic activity has slowed following a tightening of mobility restrictions
- Policy support remains significant with a strong focus on the most vulnerable
- The recovery will gain traction in the second half of 2021
- Tax and benefit reforms could make the recovery more inclusive
- Costa Rica
- Vaccination is progressing gradually
- Activity in the free trade zone remains robust
- Social transfers helped mitigate the social impact of the recession
- The recovery will progress gradually
- Structural reforms should continue
- Czech Republic
- The pandemic has been difficult to control
- A further tightening of containment measures undermined the economic recovery
- Policy remains very accommodative
- Sustained economic recovery should start in mid-2021
- Policy should facilitate job transition and boost a green recovery
- Denmark
- Denmark has been relaxing its containment measures
- The virus and containment measures interrupted the recovery
- Fiscal stimulus in 2021 is largely focused on green measures
- A rebound is projected in the second half of 2021
- Targeted and structural measures can underpin future growth
- Estonia
- New measures have been taken to tame the second wave
- The resurgence of the pandemic has damped the recovery
- Effective economic support has been reinstated
- A strong recovery is down the road
- Policies need to address looming poverty and climate challenges
- Euro area
- The epidemiological situation remains difficult
- Activity has remained subdued, held back by services.
- Policies remain supportive at European and national levels
- Growth will rebound strongly, but scars will remain
- Fiscal and financial policies should support resource reallocation
- Finland
- Containment measures are being progressively relaxed
- The third COVID-19 wave has temporarily slowed the recovery
- Temporary support measures will expire by end-2021
- Consumption and exports will lead the recovery
- Extending temporary support for business costs if sanitary conditions deteriorate would help to sustain the recovery
- France
- The vaccination campaign is easing some sanitary pressures
- The economic impact of restrictions has eased but remains concentrated in services
- Policy responses are extensive
- The recovery path remains uncertain
- Policies will help strengthen the recovery
- Germany
- COVID-19 outbreaks have delayed the reopening of the economy
- Manufacturing is booming while services and construction lag
- Expansionary fiscal policy is supporting growth
- A strong recovery is on its way
- Delivery of vaccinations and fiscal plans would support well-being
- Greece
- Greece extended strict containment measures to control a third wave of infections
- Containment measures have reduced activity, but by less than in 2020
- The government has prolonged support and announced a substantial recovery plan
- A pick-up in tourism and the recovery plan will drive the recovery
- Upgrading skills and improving the investment climate would strengthen the recovery
- Hungary
- The vaccine rollout is progressing swiftly
- Industry continues to recover while service activity remains subdued
- Policy continues to provide relief
- The recovery is set to strengthen
- Maintaining policy support should depend on the strength of the recovery
- Iceland
- The health situation is improving
- The economy is recovering.
- Policy remains accommodative
- The recovery is set to accelerate
- Strengthening competition and upgrading skills would underpin the recovery
- India
- The second wave of the virus hit hard
- The resurgence in infections is delaying the recovery
- The policy mix is evolving
- There are various downside risks on the horizon
- Serious scarring risks for individuals and firms call for appropriate policy actions
- Indonesia
- COVID-19 is still not under control
- The recovery path is proving bumpy
- Economic support measures are set to remain in place as long as uncertainty prevails
- Prospects are uncertain and risks are mostly on the downside
- Policy measures need to be taken to exit the crisis with the right skills
- Ireland
- Bringing infections under control has proven to be difficult
- A new confinement had less impact on activity
- Policy support has remained substantial
- The economy is poised for a strong recovery
- Policy support should be withdrawn gradually
- Israel
- The economy has largely reopened
- Economic activity is rebounding
- Monetary and fiscal policy continue to support households and firms
- The economy is projected to recover robustly
- Policy support should become more targeted
- Italy
- The vaccination rollout is accelerating, facilitating the easing of restrictions
- Strong manufacturing production contrasts with weak activity in contact-intensive services sectors
- Comprehensive fiscal support will continue well into 2021
- Supporting an emergence from the crisis
- Reforms to the public administration are needed to sustain higher growth
- Japan
- Sanitary conditions vary across the country and vaccination has been slow
- Confinement measures have weighed on domestic demand while external demand has remained robust
- Fiscal policy has reacted to the deterioration in sanitary conditions.
- A steady recovery is expected, but uncertainty abounds.
