Uncertainty in risk assessment : the representation and treatment of uncertainties by probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods

Uncertainty in risk assessment the representation and treatment of uncertainties by probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods

"There are a growing number of researchers and analysts who find the probability-based approaches for assessing risk and uncertainties to be too narrow and limiting. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment provides a broad conceptual framework and describes various alternative approaches of uncertainty...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Aven, Terje (-)
Autor Corporativo: Wiley Online Library (Servicio en línea) (-)
Formato: Libro electrónico
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Chichester, West Sussex : Wiley 2014.
Edición:1st edition
Materias:
Mathematics.
Probabilities.
Risk assessment > Statistical methods.
Ver en Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull:https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009631862006719
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods
  • Contents
  • Preface
  • Part I: Introduction
  • 1 Introduction
  • 1.1 Risk
  • 1.1.1 The concept of risk
  • 1.1.2 Describing/measuring risk
  • 1.1.3 Examples
  • 1.2 Probabilistic risk assessment
  • 1.3 Use of risk assessment: The risk management and decision-making context
  • 1.4 Treatment of uncertainties in risk assessments
  • 1.5 Challenges: Discussion
  • 1.5.1 Examples
  • 1.5.2 Alternatives to the probability-based approaches to risk and uncertainty assessment
  • 1.5.3 The way ahead
  • References - Part I
  • Part II: Methods
  • 2 Probabilistic approaches for treating uncertainty
  • 2.1 Classical probabilities
  • 2.2 Frequentist probabilities
  • 2.3 Subjective probabilities
  • 2.3.1 Betting interpretation
  • 2.3.2 Reference to a standard for uncertainty
  • 2.4 The Bayesian subjective probability framework
  • 2.5 Logical probabilities
  • 3 Imprecise probabilities for treating uncertainty
  • 4 Possibility theory for treating uncertainty
  • 4.1 Basics of possibility theory
  • 4.2 Approaches for constructing possibility distributions
  • 4.2.1 Building possibility distributions from nested probability intervals
  • 4.2.2 Justification for using the triangular possibility distribution
  • 4.2.3 Building possibility distributions using Chebyshev's inequality
  • 5 Evidence theory for treating uncertainty
  • 6 Methods of uncertainty propagation
  • 6.1 Level 1 uncertainty propagation setting
  • 6.1.1 Level 1 purely probabilistic framework
  • 6.1.2 Level 1 purely possibilistic framework
  • 6.1.3 Level 1 hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic framework
  • 6.2 Level 2 uncertainty propagation setting
  • 6.2.1 Level 2 purely probabilistic framework
  • 6.2.2 Level 2 hybrid probabilistic-evidence theory framework
  • 7 Discussion.
  • 7.1 Probabilistic analysis
  • 7.2 Lower and upper probabilities
  • 7.3 Non-probabilistic representations with interpretations other than lower and upper probabilities
  • 7.4 Hybrid representations of uncertainty
  • 7.5 Semi-quantitative approaches
  • References - Part II
  • Part III: Practical Applications
  • 8 Uncertainty representation and propagation in structural reliability analysis
  • 8.1 Structural reliability analysis
  • 8.1.1 A model of crack propagation under cyclic fatigue
  • 8.2 Case study
  • 8.3 Uncertainty representation
  • 8.4 Uncertainty propagation
  • 8.5 Results
  • 8.6 Comparison to a purely probabilistic method
  • 9 Uncertainty representation and propagation in maintenance performance assessment
  • 9.1 Maintenance performance assessment
  • 9.2 Case study
  • 9.3 Uncertainty representation
  • 9.4 Uncertainty propagation
  • 9.4.1 Maintenance performance assessment in the case of no epistemic uncertainty on the parameters
  • 9.4.2 Application of the hybrid probabilistic-theory of evidence uncertainty propagation method
  • 9.5 Results
  • 10 Uncertainty representation and propagation in event tree analysis
  • 10.1 Event tree analysis
  • 10.2 Case study
  • 10.3 Uncertainty representation
  • 10.4 Uncertainty propagation
  • 10.5 Results
  • 10.6 Comparison of the results to those obtained by using other uncertainty representation and propagation methods
  • 10.6.1 Purely probabilistic representation and propagation of the uncertainty
  • 10.6.2 Purely possibilistic representation and propagation of the uncertainty
  • 10.7 Result comparison
  • 10.7.1 Comparison of results
  • 10.7.2 Comparison of the results for the probability of occurrence of a severe consequence accident
  • 11 Uncertainty representation and propagation in the evaluation of the consequences of industrial activity
  • 11.1 Evaluation of the consequences of undesirable events.
  • 11.2 Case study
  • 11.3 Uncertainty representation
  • 11.4 Uncertainty propagation
  • 11.5 Results
  • 11.6 Comparison of the results to those obtained using a purely probabilistic approach
  • 12 Uncertainty representation and propagation in the risk assessment of a process plant
  • 12.1 Introduction
  • 12.2 Case description
  • 12.3 The "textbook" Bayesian approach (level 2 analysis)
  • 12.4 An alternative approach based on subjective probabilities (level 1 analysis)
  • References - Part III
  • Part IV: Conclusions
  • 13 Conclusions
  • References - Part IV
  • Appendix A: Operative procedures for the methods of uncertainty propagation
  • A.1 Level 1 hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic framework
  • A.2 Level 2 purely probabilistic framework
  • Appendix B: Possibility-probability transformation
  • Reference
  • Index.

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