Trade-off analytics creating and exploring the system tradespace

Presents information to create a trade-off analysis framework for use in government and commercial acquisition environments This book presents a decision management process based on decision theory and cost analysis best practices aligned with the ISO/IEC 15288, the Systems Engineering Handbook, and...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Otros Autores:	Parnell, Gregory S., editor (editor)
Formato:	Libro electrónico
Idioma:	Inglés
Publicado:	Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley c2017. Hoboken, New Jersey : 2017.
Edición:	1st edition
Colección:	Wiley series in systems engineering and management.
Materias:	Systems engineering > Decision making. Multiple criteria decision making.
Ver en Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull:	https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009630134406719

Tabla de Contenidos:

Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Contents
List of Contributors
About the Authors
Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
About the Companion Website
Chapter 1 Introduction to Trade-off Analysis
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Trade-off Analyses Throughout the Life Cycle
1.3 Trade-off Analysis to Identify System Value
1.4 Trade-off Analysis to Identify System Uncertainties and Risks
1.5 Trade-off Analyses can Integrate Value and Risk Analysis
1.6 Trade-off Analysis in the Systems Engineering Decision Management Process
1.7 Trade-off Analysis Mistakes of Omission and Commission
1.7.1 Mistakes of Omission
1.7.2 Mistakes of Commission
1.7.3 Impacts of the Trade-Off Analysis Mistakes
1.8 Overview of the Book
1.8.1 Illustrative Examples and Techniques Used in the Book
1.9 Key Terms
1.10 Exercises
References
Chapter 2 A Conceptual Framework and Mathematical Foundation for Trade-Off Analysis
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Trade-Off Analysis Terms
2.3 Influence Diagram of the Tradespace
2.3.1 Stakeholder Needs, System Functions, and Requirements
2.3.2 Objectives
2.3.3 System Alternatives
2.3.4 Uncertainty
2.3.5 Preferences and Evaluation of Alternatives
2.3.6 Resource Analysis
2.3.7 An Integrated Trade-Off Analyses
2.4 Tradespace Exploration
2.5 Summary
2.6 Key Words
2.7 Exercises
References
Chapter 3 Quantifying Uncertainty
3.1 Sources of Uncertainty in Systems Engineering
3.2 The Rules of Probability and Human Intuition
3.3 Probability Distributions
3.3.1 Calculating Probabilities from Experiments
3.3.2 Calculating Complex Probabilities from Simpler Probabilities
3.3.3 Calculating Probabilities Using Parametric Distributions
3.3.4 Applications of Parametric Probability Distributions
3.4 Estimating Probabilities.
3.4.1 Using Historical Data
3.4.2 Using Human Judgment
3.4.3 Biases in Judgment
3.5 Modeling Using Probability
3.5.1 Bayes Nets
3.5.2 Monte Carlo Simulation
3.5.3 Monte Carlo Simulation with Dependent Uncertainties
3.5.4 Monte Carlo Simulation with Partial Information on Output Values
3.5.5 Variations on Monte Carlo Simulation
3.5.6 Sensitivity Analysis
3.6 Summary
3.7 Key Terms
3.8 Exercises
References
Chapter 4 Analyzing Resources
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Resources
4.2.1 People
4.2.2 Facilities
4.2.3 Costs
4.2.4 Resource Space
4.3 Cost Analysis
4.3.1 Cost Estimation
4.3.2 Cost Estimation Techniques
4.3.3 Learning Curves
4.3.4 Net Present Value
4.3.5 Monte Carlo Simulation
4.3.6 Sensitivity Analysis
4.4 Affordability Analysis
4.4.1 Background
4.4.2 The Basics of Affordability Analysis Are Not Difficult
4.4.3 DoD Comparison of Cost Analysis and Affordability Analysis
4.4.4 Affordability Analysis Definitions
4.4.5 "Big A" Affordability Analysis Process Guide
4.5 Key Terms
4.6 Excercises
References
Chapter 5 Understanding Decision Management
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Decision Process Context
5.3 Decision Process Activities
5.3.1 Frame Decision
5.3.2 Develop Objectives and Measures
5.3.3 Generate Creative Alternatives
5.3.4 Assess Alternatives via Deterministic Analysis
5.3.5 Synthesize Results
5.3.6 Develop Multidimensional Value Model
5.3.7 Identify Uncertainty and Conduct Probabilistic Analysis
5.3.8 Assess Impact of Uncertainty
5.3.9 Improve Alternatives
5.3.10 Communicating Trade-Offs
5.3.11 Present Recommendation and Implementation Plan
5.4 Summary
5.5 Key Terms
5.6 Exercises
References
Chapter 6 Identifying Opportunities
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Knowledge
6.2.1 Domain Knowledge.
6.2.2 Technical Knowledge
6.2.3 Business Knowledge
6.2.4 Expert Knowledge
6.2.5 Stakeholder Knowledge
6.3 Decision Traps
6.4 Techniques
6.4.1 Interviews
6.4.2 Focus Groups
6.4.3 Surveys
6.5 Tools
6.5.1 Concept Map
6.5.2 System Boundary
6.5.3 Decision Hierarchy
6.5.4 Issues List
6.5.5 Vision Statement
6.5.6 Influence Diagram
6.5.7 Selecting Appropriate Tools and Techniques
6.6 Illustrative Examples
6.6.1 Commercial
6.6.2 Defense
6.7 Key Terms
6.8 Exercises
References
Chapter 7 Identifying Objectives and Value Measures
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Value-Focused Thinking
7.2.1 Four Major VFT Ideas
7.2.2 Benefits of VFT
7.3 Shareholder and Stakeholder Value
7.3.1 Private Company Example
7.3.2 Government Agency Example
7.4 Challenges in Identifying Objectives
7.5 Identifying the Decision Objectives
7.5.1 Questions to Help Identify Decision Objectives
7.5.2 How to Get Answers to the Questions
7.6 The Financial or Cost Objective
7.6.1 Financial Objectives for Private Companies
7.6.2 Cost Objective for Public Organizations
7.7 Developing Value Measures
7.8 Structuring Multiple Objectives
7.8.1 Value Hierarchies
7.8.2 Techniques for Developing Value Hierarchies
7.8.3 Value Hierarchy Best Practices
7.8.4 Cautions about Cost and Risk Objectives
7.9 Illustrative Examples
7.9.1 Military Illustrative Example
7.9.2 Homeland Security Illustrative Example
7.10 Summary
7.11 Key Terms
7.12 Exercises
References
Chapter 8 Developing and Evaluating Alternatives
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Overview of Decision-making, Creativity, and Teams
8.2.1 Approaches to Decision-Making
8.2.2 Cognitive Methods for Creating Alternatives
8.2.3 Key Concepts for Building and Operating Teams
8.3 Alternative Development Techniques.
8.3.1 Structured Creativity Methods
8.3.2 Morphological Box
8.3.3 Pugh Method for Alternative Generation
8.3.4 TRIZ for Alternative Development
8.4 Assessment of Alternative Development Techniques
8.5 Alternative Evaluation Techniques
8.5.1 Decision-Theory-Based Approaches
8.5.2 Pugh Method for Alternative Evaluation
8.5.3 Axiomatic Approach to Design (AAD)
8.5.4 TRIZ for Alternative Evaluation
8.5.5 Design of Experiments (DOE)
8.5.6 Taguchi Approach
8.5.7 Quality Function Deployment (QFD)
8.5.8 Analytic Hierarchy Process AHP
8.6 Assessment of Alternative Evaluation Techniques
8.7 Key Terms
8.8 Exercises
References
Chapter 9 An Integrated Model for Trade-Off Analysis
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Conceptual Design Example
9.3 Integrated Approach Influence Diagram
9.3.1 Decision Nodes
9.3.2 Uncertainty Nodes
9.3.3 Constant Node
9.3.4 Value Nodes
9.4 Other Types of Trade-Off Analysis
9.5 Simulation Tools
9.5.1 Monte Carlo Simulation Proprietary Add-Ins
9.5.2 The Discipline of Probability Management
9.5.3 SIPmathTM Tool in Native Excel
9.5.4 Model Building Steps
9.6 Summary
9.7 Key Terms
9.8 Exercises
References
Chapter 10 Exploring Concept Trade-Offs
10.1 Introduction
10.1.1 Key Concepts, Concept Trade-Offs, and Concept Exploration
10.2 Defining the Concept Space and System Concept of Operations
10.3 Exploring the Concept Space
10.3.1 Storytelling-Enabled Tradespace Exploration
10.3.2 Decisions and Outcomes
10.3.3 Contingent Decision-Making
10.4 Trade-off Analysis Frameworks
10.5 Tradespace and System Design Life Cycle
10.6 From Point Trade-offs to Tradespace Exploration
10.7 Value-based Multiattribute Tradespace Analysis
10.7.1 Tradespace Exploration and Sensitivity Analysis.
10.7.2 Tradespace Exploration and Uncertainty
10.7.3 Tradespace Exploration with Spiral Development
10.7.4 Tradespace Exploration in Relation to Optimization and Decision Theory
10.8 Illustrative Example
10.8.1 Step 1: Determine Key Decision-Makers
10.8.2 Step 2: Scope and Bound the Mission
10.8.3 Step 3: Elicit Attributes and Utilities (Preference Capture)
10.8.4 Step 4: Define Design Vector Elements (Concept Generation)
10.8.5 Step 5: Develop Model(s) (Evaluation)
10.8.6 Step 6: Generate the Tradespace (Computation)
10.8.7 Step 7: Explore the Tradespace (Analysis and Synthesis)
10.9 Conclusions
10.10 Key Terms
10.11 Exercises
References
Chapter 11 Architecture Evaluation Framework
11.1 Introduction
11.1.1 Architecture in the Decision Space
11.1.2 Architecture Evaluation
11.1.3 Architecture Views and Viewpoints
11.1.4 Stakeholders
11.1.5 Stakeholder Concerns
11.1.6 Architecture versus Design
11.1.7 On the Uses of Architecture
11.1.8 Standardizing on an Architecture Evaluation Strategy
11.2 Key Considerations in Evaluating Architectures
11.2.1 Plan-Driven Evaluation Effort
11.2.2 Objectives-Driven Evaluation
11.2.3 Assessment versus Analysis
11.3 Architecture Evaluation Elements
11.3.1 Architecture Evaluation Approach
11.3.2 Architecture Evaluation Objectives
11.3.3 Evaluation Approach Examples
11.3.4 Value Assessment Methods
11.3.5 Value Assessment Criteria
11.3.6 Architecture Analysis Methods
11.4 Steps in an Architecture Evaluation Process
11.5 Example Evaluation Taxonomy
11.5.1 Business Impact Factors
11.5.2 Mission Impact Factors
11.5.3 Architecture Attributes
11.6 Summary
11.7 Key Terms
11.8 Exercises
References
Chapter 12 Exploring the Design Space
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Example 1: Liftboat.
12.2.1 Liftboat Fractional Factorial Design of Experiments.

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