Inside the Crystal Ball How to Make and Use Forecasts
A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts , UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The...
| Autor principal: | |
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| Formato: | Libro electrónico |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
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Wiley
2014.
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| Edición: | 1st edition |
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| Ver en Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull: | https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009630021606719 |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- ""Title Page""; ""Copyright""; ""Acknowledgments""; ""Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting""; ""Notes""; ""Chapter 1: What Makes a Successful Forecaster?""; ""Grading Forecasters: How Many Pass?""; ""Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient""; ""Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats""; ""Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel""; ""Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting?""; ""Notes""; ""Chapter 2: The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts""; ""Judgment Counts More Than Math""
- ""Habits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them""""Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics""; ""Notes""; ""Chapter 3: What Can We Learn from History?""; ""It's Never Normal""; ""Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles""; ""National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?""; ""U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression""; ""The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget""; ""The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant""; ""Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation?""; ""Notes""; ""Chapter 4: When Forecasters Get It Wrong""
- ""The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression""""The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy""; ""The Great Recession: Lessons Learned""; ""The Productivity Miracle and the "New Economy"""; ""Productivity: Lessons Learned""; ""Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't""; ""The Tech Crash Was Not Okay""; ""Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them""; ""Forecasting Recessions""; ""Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned""; ""Notes""; ""Chapter 5: Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?""
- ""Does the U.S. Government "Cook the Books" on Economic Data Reports?""""To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated?""; ""Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits?""; ""The Beltway's Multiplier Mania""; ""Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They?""; ""Why Government Statistics Keep "Changing Their Mind"""; ""Living with Revisions""; ""Notes""; ""Chapter 6: Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?""; ""Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought""; ""Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them?""; ""Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect?""
- ""Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play?""""Keynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned?""; ""Notes""; ""Chapter 7: The "New Normal": Time to Curb Your Enthusiasm?""; ""Must Forecasters Restrain Multiyear U.S. Growth Assumptions?""; ""Supply-Side Forecasting: Labor, Capital, and Productivity""; ""Are Demographics Destiny?""; ""Pivotal Productivity Projections""; ""Notes""; ""Chapter 8: Animal Spirits: The Intangibles behind Business Spending""; ""Animal Spirits on Main Street and Wall Street""; ""Can We Base Forecasts on Confidence Indexes?""; ""Business Confidence and Inventory Building""
- ""How Do Animal Spirits Relate to Job Creation?""
