Understanding uncertainty
Praise for the First Edition "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." —Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | eBook |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Hoboken, New Jersey :
Wiley
2014.
|
| Edition: | Revised edition |
| Series: | Wiley series in probability and statistics
Wiley series in probability and statistics. |
| Subjects: | |
| See on Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull: | https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009628721706719 |
Table of Contents:
- Cover
- Title Page
- Copyright Page
- Contents
- Preface
- Prologue
- Chapter 1: Uncertainty
- 1.1. Introduction
- 1.2. Examples
- 1.3. Suppression of Uncertainty
- 1.4. The Removal of Uncertainty
- 1.5. The Uses of Uncertainty
- 1.6. The Calculus of Uncertainty
- 1.7. Beliefs
- 1.8. Decision Analysis
- Chapter 2: Stylistic Questions
- 2.1. Reason
- 2.2. Unreason
- 2.3. Facts
- 2.4. Emotion
- 2.5. Normative and Descriptive Approaches
- 2.6. Simplicity
- 2.7. Mathematics
- 2.8. Writing
- 2.9. Mathematics Tutorial
- Chapter 3: Probability
- 3.1. Measurement
- 3.2. Randomness
- 3.3. A Standard for Probability
- 3.4. Probability
- 3.5. Coherence
- 3.6. Belief
- 3.7. Complementary Event
- 3.8. Odds
- 3.9. Knowledge Base
- 3.10. Examples
- 3.11. Retrospect
- Chapter 4: Two Events
- 4.1. Two Events
- 4.2. Conditional Probability
- 4.3. Independence
- 4.4. Association
- 4.5. Examples
- 4.6. Supposition and Fact
- 4.7. Seeing and Doing
- Chapter 5: The Rules of Probability
- 5.1. Combinations of Events
- 5.2. Addition Rule
- 5.3. Multiplication Rule
- 5.4. The Basic Rules
- 5.5. Examples
- 5.6. Extension of the Conversation
- 5.7. Dutch Books
- 5.8. Scoring Rules
- 5.9. Logic Again
- 5.10. Decision Analysis
- 5.11. The Prisoners' Dilemma
- 5.12. The Calculus and Reality
- 5.13. Closure
- Chapter 6: Bayes Rule
- 6.1. Transposed Conditionals
- 6.2. Learning
- 6.3. Bayes Rule
- 6.4. Medical Diagnosis
- 6.5. Odds Form of Bayes Rule
- 6.6. Forensic Evidence
- 6.7. Likelihood Ratio
- 6.8. Cromwell's Rule
- 6.9. A Tale of Two Urns
- 6.10. Ravens
- 6.11. Diagnosis and Related Matters
- 6.12. Information
- Chapter 7: Measuring Uncertainty
- 7.1. Classical Form
- 7.2. Frequency Data
- 7.3. Exchangeability
- 7.4. Bernoulli Series
- 7.5. De Finetti's Result
- 7.6. Large Numbers.
- 7.7. Belief and Frequency
- 7.8. Chance
- Chapter 8: Three Events
- 8.1. The Rules of Probability
- 8.2. Simpson's Paradox
- 8.3. Source of the Paradox
- 8.4. Experimentation
- 8.5. Randomization
- 8.6. Exchangeability
- 8.7. Spurious Association
- 8.8. Independence
- 8.9. Conclusions
- Chapter 9: Variation
- 9.1. Variation and Uncertainty
- 9.2. Binomial Distribution
- 9.3. Expectation
- 9.4. Poisson Distribution
- 9.5. Spread
- 9.6. Variability as an Experimental Tool
- 9.7. Probability and Chance
- 9.8. Pictorial Representation
- 9.9. Probability Densities
- 9.10. The Normal Distribution
- 9.11. Variation as a Natural Phenomenon
- 9.12. Ellsberg's Paradox
- Chapter 10: Decision Analysis
- 10.1. Beliefs and Actions
- 10.2. Comparison of Consequences
- 10.3. Medical Example
- 10.4. Maximization of Expected Utility
- 10.5. More on Utility
- 10.6. Some Complications
- 10.7. Reason and Emotion
- 10.8. Numeracy
- 10.9. Expected Utility
- 10.10. Decision Trees
- 10.11. The Art and Science of Decision Analysis
- 10.12. Further Complications
- 10.13. Combination of Features
- 10.14. Legal Applications
- Chapter 11: Science
- 11.1. Scientific Method
- 11.2. Science and Education
- 11.3. Data Uncertainty
- 11.4. Theories
- 11.5. Uncertainty of a Theory
- 11.6. The Bayesian Development
- 11.7. Modification of Theories
- 11.8. Models
- 11.9. Hypothesis Testing
- 11.10. Significance Tests
- 11.11. Repetition
- 11.12. Summary
- Chapter 12: Examples
- 12.1. Introduction
- 12.2. Cards
- 12.3. The Three Doors
- 12.4. The Problem of Two Daughters
- 12.5. Two More Daughters and Cardano
- 12.6. The Two Envelopes
- 12.7. Y2K
- 12.8. UFOs
- 12.9. Conglomerability
- 12.10. Efron's Dice
- Chapter 13: Probability Assessment
- 13.1. Nonrepeatable Events
- 13.2. Two Events
- 13.3. Coherence.
- 13.4. Probabilistic Reasoning
- 13.5. Trickle Down
- 13.6. Summary
- Chapter 14: Statistics
- 14.1. Bayesian Statistics
- 14.2. A Bayesian Example
- 14.3. Frequency Statistics
- 14.4. Significance Tests
- 14.5. Betting
- 14.6. Finance
- Epilogue
- Subject Index
- Index of Examples
- Index of Notations
- EULA.
