Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography

Shaping the next one hundred years new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography

The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., ""Man will never fly""-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demo...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Lempert, Robert J. (-)
Otros Autores: Popper, Steven W., 1953-, Bankes, Steven C.
Formato: Libro electrónico
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Santa Monica, CA : RAND 2003.
Edición:186th ed
Materias:
System analysis.
Decision making.
Information technology.
Ver en Biblioteca Universitat Ramon Llull:https://discovery.url.edu/permalink/34CSUC_URL/1im36ta/alma991009433074506719
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • COVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Two - A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE; Chapter Three - ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Four - A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION; Chapter Five - IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Six - POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Seven - CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES; Appendix A - DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIOGENERATOR; Appendix B - ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES; BIBLIOGRAPHY

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